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每周一評:突破“供給約束” 釋放消費潛力

時間:2018-09-29 08:08來源:中國經濟網—《證券日報 作者:李宇嘉 點擊:
日前,《中共中央 國務院關于完善促進消費體制機制 進一步激發居民消費潛力的若干意見》發布。過去,“擴大內需、挖掘消費潛力”的各類支持政

【直報網北京9月30日訊】(作者:李宇嘉)日前,《中共中央 國務院關于完善促進消費體制機制 進一步激發居民消費潛力的若干意見》發布。過去,“擴大內需、挖掘消費潛力”的各類支持政策比較多,但重點多在促進需求釋放,此次則重點強調供給端“補短板”。文件開宗明義,提出“以消費升級引領供給創新、以供給提升創造消費新增長點的循環動力持續增強,實現更高水平的供需平衡,居民消費率穩步提升”。可見,無論是培育消費新增長點,還是夯實消費增長動力,供給端已成為政策的著力點。

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但是,發揮消費的基礎性作用,不能靠以消費邊際傾向低的中高收入階層為主,更應該挖掘中等收入、低收入及農村消費,這部分人群是10億數量級的,消費意愿強、潛力大。即便目前,這部分人群消費開始升級,傳統消費下降(我國整體恩格爾系數為30%),新型及服務消費增長(典型如對子女教育空前重視),但收入短期內難以上臺階,收入分配改革須假以時日。消費升級和轉移,都是以其他消費下降為代價。轎車、空調等大宗可選消費下降,或意味著,因為剛性支出不斷增加,中等收入人群可能不得不壓縮其他領域支出,因為收入水平變化并不大。

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